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August Lean Hogs opened lower and made the high of the day at  109.475. The high was in the middle of Friday’s range, turning south and breaking down to the low of the day at 107.275. It limped into the close and settled near the low at 107.50. The breakdown took price to a new low for the down move, taking out the rising 21-DMA now at 108.80 and the 107.925 support level. The cutout is weakening as Friday’s breakdown put pressure on the index and the Monday cutout keeps the pressure on as it was lower in the morning report and it was even lower on the afternoon report. This likely will show a lower index on Tuesday. Monday was month end and long liquidation took place, in my opinion as the pressure on the cutout index caused traders to lighten positions at month end as fears the cash market will follow to the downside with cutouts coming down. The cash index actually made a new high for the year on Monday. Is the cutout breakdown the start of a move lower or just a temporary move? The question will be was the breakdown just month end profit taking with traders putting long positions back on Tuesday? We’ll see!... If Hogs can get above 107.925, it could challenge resistance at the 21-DMA. Resistance then comes in at 109.85. A failure from the low could see price test support at the 106.85. Support then comes in at 104.35.

The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 120.43 as of 06/27/2025. 

The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 112.02 as of 06/26/2025.

Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 483,000, which is above last week’s 459,000 and last year’s 477,596.

**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

888.391.7894

Fax: 312.256.0109

bdicostanzo@walshtrading.com

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