The wheat complex posted lower trade across the three exchanges on Friday following USDA’s increase to the world stocks projection. Chicago SRW futures were down 4 ¼ to 5 cents on the day. December was up 9 ¼ cents over the week. KC HRW contracts were 4 ½ 6 ½ cents lower at the close, as December managed a 6 ½ cent gain since last Friday. MPLS spring wheat closed down 2 to 6 1/2 cents, as December was 5 ¼ cents higher on the week. 

For the US balance sheet in this morning’s WASDE, USDA revised the old crop stocks 6 mbu lower due to the Grains Stocks report last week, while reducing the production total by 11 mbu to 1.971 bbu, via the Small Grains Summary. Mix in a 10 mbu increase to feed and residual and 10 mbu more imports, and stocks were revised lower by 16 mbu to 812 mbu.

For the World numbers, USDA did show a 1 MMT cut to EU and Russian production, with Ukraine down 0.6 MMT. However, a larger carryover, with 2.36 MMT lower use and smaller exports, helped to raise the world carryout for 2024/25 by 0.5 MMT to 257.72 MMT.

The French soft winter wheat crop is now 6% planted according to FranceAgriMer. SovEcon trimmed their Russian wheat estimate by another 1.4 MMT from their previous projection to 81.5 MMT.

This afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report showed specs in Chicago wheat futures and options adding back 6,496 contracts to their net short as of 10/8. In KC, they were cutting 9,386 contracts to their net short position, at 5,884 contracts as of Tuesday.

Dec 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.99, down 4 3/4 cents,

Mar 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.21 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents,

Dec 24 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.04 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents,

Mar 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.21 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents,

Dec 24 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.43 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents,

Mar 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.64 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents,