Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading lower by 2 to 2 3/4 cents at midday, as options traders test the $3.80 “pin” with March options expiring today. The Export Sales report this morning showed 1.249 MMT of corn was sold for the week ending 02/13. That was slightly higher than the average estimate prior to the report, and 28.9% higher wk/wk. Corn bookings for the week were 24.3% higher than the same week last year. MYTD corn shipments are now at 12.651 MMT which lags last year by 48.90%. From the same report new crop corn bookings were 1,016 MT, which was below the pre-report expected range. USDA released initial 20/21 projection in their Ag Outlook Forum on Friday showing corn used for ethanol at 5.45 bbu, which would be the highest since 2017/18. Forecasted corn exports for 2020/21 are estimated at 2.1 bbu, also the highest since 2017/18. The forecasted yr/yr change in use (670 mbu), would not offset the increase in supply (1,415 mbu), which has forecasted ending stocks of 2.637 bbu (up 745 mbu yr/yr).

Mar 20 Corn is at $3.76 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

May 20 Corn is at $3.80, down 2 3/4 cents,

Jul 20 Corn is at $3.83 1/2, down 2 cents,

Sep 20 Corn is at $3.81 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are up 1 to 1 3/4 cents in the front months so far. March meal futures are $2.30/ton lower, with a 43 point bounce in soybean oil. The weekly Export Sales report from USDA showed 494,277 MT of soybean bookings on the week ending 02/13. That was below the estimated range, and 13.3% lower wk/wk. New crop soybean sales were 3,360 MT for the same week. Weekly shipments from the report were 957,812 MT, which was 5.4% higher than the same week last year. MYTD soybean exports total 28.406 MMT, which is 21.9% above than last year’s pace. Soybean sales to China totaled 11,484 MT or only 2.32% of total bean bookings. Soybean meal sales from the one-day delayed report were 169,433 MT which was also below the expected range. MYTD soymeal shipments totaled 4.123 MMT, which was 10.7% lower yr/yr. Soybean oil sales were on the high end of expectations, with 41,954 MT of soy oil bookings on the week. With 87,545 MT of soy oil shipped MYTD exports are 430,414 MT, which is 40.1% higher than last year’s pace. US soybean carry over for 2020/21 is expected to be 320 mbu according to the USDA Ag Outlook Forum data, that is the lowest since 2016/17 if realized and lifted the USDA preliminary avg cash price to $8.80/bu.

Mar 20 Soybeans are at $8.93 3/4, up 1 cent,

May 20 Soybeans are at $9.02, up 1 cent,

Jul 20 Soybeans are at $9.12 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans are at $9.15 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents,

Mar 20 Soybean Meal is at $290.60, down $2.30

Mar 20 Soybean Oil is at $30.55, up $0.43

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

The wheat market is mostly lower so far, with Chicago wheat down the most. SRW futures are 3 1/2 cents lower at midday, as March HRW futures are 1/4 cent/bu lower. March HRS futures are so far firm at $5.29 1/2. The delayed Export Sales report from USDA showed less than expected wheat booking from the week ending 02/13. The 346,290 MT of old crop sales was 46.15% lower wk/wk, and 41.88% below the same week last year. New crop sales were above the average pre-report estimate with 60,100 MT sold on the week. Wheat shipments from the report were 595,345 M, which was 40.61% higher yr/yr, and put MYTD exports at 17.210 MMT. Accumulated wheat exports remain steadily 14.84% above last year’s pace. The USDA listed 2020/21 wheat production of 1.836 bbu at their annual Ag Outlook Forum, the lowest level since 06/07 MY. USDA’s estimate for 20/21 ending stocks of 777 mbu, would be the lowest carryout since the 14/15 MY. Taiwan purchased 102,525 MT of US wheat in their recent tender. Coceral is estimating that soft wheat production in the EU will drop to 137.9 MMT in 2020 from 145.7 MMT in 2019.

Mar 20 CBOT Wheat is at $5.56 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents,

Mar 20 KCBT Wheat is at $4.73 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

Mar 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.29 1/2, unch,

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures continue yesterday’s triple digit decline with more of the same, front month futures are $1.10 to $1.92 lower so far. Front month feeder cattle are also lower at midday, with losses as much as $1.22 in May contract. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 02/19 was 85 cents higher to $141.95. The delayed Export Sales report showed 19,387 MT of beef was sold in the week ending 02/13. That is 10.83% higher wk/w, and 29.11% higher than the same week last year. Beef exports through 2020 total 109,694 MT, which is 47.25% higher than last year’s pace. Analysts estimate the CoF report this afternoon will show 11.963 million head On Feed on Feb 1 (+2.4% yr/yr). The average trade estimate for January marketings is 1.924 million head, which would be 0.7% higher yr/yr. Ahead of the report, traders expect Jan placements at about 1.997 million head, which would be 1.4% higher than last January. Wholesale boxed beef prices are showing firmness on Friday morning. Choice boxes bounced back by a quarter to $204.75 cwt. while Select boxes held steady at $201.60 cwt. USDA reported further sales in NE and KS at the $120 mark yesterday. Cash sales on the week remain in the $119 to $120 range, with dressed sales at $190-$191. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter for the week through Thursday at 474,000 head, which was 8,000 below last week’s pace.

Feb 20 Cattle are at $119.000, down $1.100,

Apr 20 Cattle are at $117.225, down $1.925,

Jun 20 Cattle are at $109.225, down $1.700,

Mar 20 Feeder Cattle are at $139.950, down $0.850

Apr 20 Feeder Cattle are at $141.650, down $0.875

May 20 Feeder Cattle are at $142.350, down $1.225

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures extend the losses from yesterday, with futures 2 to 45 cents lower so far. The CME Lean Hog Index was $0.24 higher to $55.78. In USDA’s weekly update to export sales, 434,570 MT of pork were sold on the week ending 02/13. That is 112.9% more than the same week last year, but 49,265 MT below the average set so far through the year. A total 42,193 MT of pork was exported through the same week, which put YTD shipments at 259,453 MT. Of the week’s total sales, 13.0% were to China, so far this year China averages 3,352 MT or 10.89% of the net new sales. Shipments for 2020 to the PRC total 37.41% of US pork exports. USDA noted in their Ag Outlook summary, that pork exports in 2019 were up 8% yr/yr, with the forecasted 2020 exports expected to grow an additional 17% to 7.38 billion lbs. USDA’s Morning Pork Carcass Cutout value was 32 cents lower to $64.12. The National Average Base Hog price was $0.34 higher to $50.12. USDA estimated WTD FI hog slaughter through Thursday at 1.963 million head. That was 4,000 head fewer than last week’s pace but outpaced the same week last year by 82,000 head.

Apr 20 Hogs are at $66.850, down $0.025,

May 20 Hogs are at $74.025, down $0.450

Jun 20 Hogs are at $81.925, down $0.025

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Midday trades have cotton futures 34 to 50 points lower in the front months. The USDA released Export Sales data for the week ending 02/13, showing 235,302 RBs of upland cotton sold on the week. That is 32.94% lower than last week’s sales, but 44.48% higher than the same week last year. The report also showed 141,240 RBs of new crop cotton were sold on the same week, which is 425.08% more than the same week last year. the Export Sales report had upland cotton shipments for the week ending 02.13 at 357,681 RBs to put MYTD shipments at 6.243m RBs. That is 1.239m RBs (or 24.76%) more than this time last year. The USDA Ag Outlook data noted a 2.5m bale reduction to world cotton stocks in the 20/21 MY, citing larger growth in global consumption relative to production growth. The Cotlook A index for 02/20 was up 80 points to 78.30 cents/lb. The FSA weekly updated AWP for cotton was updated to 59.03 cents/lb,

Mar 20 Cotton is at 68.31, down 44 points,

May 20 Cotton is at 68.91, down 46 points

Jul 20 Cotton is at 69.74, down 50 points

Dec 20 Cotton is at 69.7, down 34 points

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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