Ag Market Commentary

After the weekend break corn prices are 4 cents per bushel lower. Friday corn trading left futures 1 3/4 to 3 3/4 cents higher. Pre-weekend short covering lifted the market, with preliminary open interest dropping 4,377 contracts. Dec corn was unchanged on the day (but down 20 ¾ for the week) closing at $3.98 1/2. CFTC data showed managed money was 11,676 contracts more net long with 320k longs and 43.6k shorts as of 10/27. Commercials were an additional 85,704 contracts net short with the largest net short since 03/13 of 2018. SAFRAS and Mercado estimate 2020/21 corn production in Brazil at 116.4 MMT. That was a 900k MT increase from the previous forecast. Trade ideas have US corn harvest about 85% complete.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Beans come out of the weekend with losses of 5 to 13 cents. The Argentine government halted the strike that began Friday at noon with a back to work order. Nov beans were down 2.5% from Friday to Friday, despite a 4 3/4 cent recovery into the weekend. Short covering was seen ahead of the weekend, with preliminary OI dropping 6,959 contracts. CME reported another 501 deliveries against Nov beans, mostly by CHS Hedging and ADM clients. Soy products also closed in the black on Friday. Analysts are looking for 170.9 – 172.0 (171.3 av) million bushels of Sept bean crushings in USDA’s Fats and Oils report. The average of analyst estimates for soy oil stocks is 1.826 billion lbs. The weekly CoT update showed soybean spec traders were 232,717 contracts net long on 10/27. That was an extra 825 contracts net long vs. the previous week. Commercial’s net position was another 16,283 contracts more net short, at 389k, however Commercial OI dropped 106,207 contracts (9.8%) from wk/wk. SAFRAS and Mercado estimate 2020/21 bean output at 133.5 MMT, which was a 1.33 MMT bump from the previous estimate. They say Brazilian planting is 35% complete compared to the 44% average for this date. --- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat is trading 1 to 2 cents lower to start the new week, on all three exchanges. On Friday, front month wheat futures were down 1/2 to 5 1/4 cents on the CBT. Kansas City HRW was down 3/4 to 1 1/2 cents on the day. MPLS wheat futures closed the session mixed, within a penny of UNCH. CFTC data showed that managed money SRW traders were 48,896 contracts net long on 10/27. That was an 832 contract reduction to the net position by way of more additional shorts. Managed money OI increased 14,740 contracts from week to week. For HRW, spec traders were net buyers and increased their net long 3,264 contracts to 41,410. Managed money speculative traders doubled their MPLS net long to 8,877 contracts.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Friday fat cattle trading left the board 2 to 32 cents higher for the front month contracts. Feeder cattle futures closed the session with triple digit gains. Jan feeders were the strongest with a $2.77 gain. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/29 was $136.76, back higher by $2.42. Cash cattle sales were pretty light this week. On Friday sales in NE went for $106, but the bulk of Northern trade was near $103 for the week. In the South the bulk of the cash sales that did take place was $106. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed cattle specs were 14,811 contracts net long on 10/27. The 20k contract weaker net long came by way of long liquidation and new selling. USDA’s wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Friday. Choice was up $0.78 to $208.10 cwt. but and Select boxes were a penny higher. USDA’s estimate for the week’s cattle slaughter through Saturday is 638,000 head. That is down 5,000 head wk/wk and 21,000 head below the same week last year.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



On Friday lean hog futures closed within 30 cents of UNCH. Dec and Feb were in the red, but spring and summer contracts closed higher. The CME Lean Hog Index for the 28th was another 78 cents lower at $75.49. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Friday afternoon was $61.35, down by 31 cents. CFTC data showed a 40,582 contract net long for lean hog spec traders on 10/27. That was a 1,476 lighter net long vs. the previous week. The National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $83.80 in the PM report, down by $3.77. Bellies were quoted higher in the PM report @ $124.70 up by $7.84. However, they still sustained the biggest loss week to week. USDA estimated the week’s FI hog slaughter at 2.683 million head through Saturday. That is 11,000 head more wk/wk and 5,000 more yr/yr. McDonalds announced they will roll our their McRib sandwich nationally rather than in selected markets.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



The cotton market opens the new week 53 to 71 points lower. On Friday, cotton was down 73 to 102 points. December was down 237 points from Friday-Friday. Cotton spec traders were net buyers on the week ending 10/27. The weekly CoT report showed a 5,590 contract bump to spec trader OI – leaving the group 70,201 contracts net long. The CoT report also showed cotton commercials were 152,873 contracts net short. That was the strongest net short since August 14 of 2018. USDA’s weekly Cotton Market Review had the week’s average spot price at 66.19 cents/lb. That was up from 65.72 LW and 4.14 cents better yr/yr. The Cotlook A index for the 29th retreated 145 points to 76.95 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton is 57.37 for the week.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






<p>Market Commentary provided by:<br /> <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /><br /> Brugler Marketing &amp; Management LLC<br /> 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022<br /> Phone: 402-697-3623<br /> Fax: 402-289-2353<br /> E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a><br /> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a></p> <p align="center"><!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> 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